The final pre-election poll of the 2024 General Election shows the three main parties are still all neck and neck in terms of first preference vote share. While momentum appears to be with Sinn Féin in the final week, and against Fine Gael, it is Fianna Fáil who take the largest share and also appear to be the best placed of the three main parties to benefit from vote transfers .
Fianna Fáil secure 21% of the first preference vote share, the same level they were on in our last poll earlier this month, so no great momentum as we move into the final days of the campaign. However, this does mean they are the largest of the three parties in terms of vote share, albeit within margin of error.
Perhaps more importantly, our analysis of second preference votes at a candidate level suggests that Fianna Fáil is probably the most transfer friendly of all parties as well, securing 21% of the second preference votes overall. They firstly secure a very good share of second preference voters within the Finan Fáil stable, with almost half of their first preference voters also giving their preferred candidate’s running mate a second preference vote. They also secure strong transfers from Fine Gael as well as from Labour, Independent Ireland and independent candidates This appears to set them to potentially secure a greater seat share than what would be projected from their first preference vote share alone.
Sinn Féin do appear to have some momentum, as some floating voters have moved back to the party during the campaign. The small gains they made at the start of the campaign are reinforced in this poll where they secure 20% of the first preference vote, a gain of 2% in the last 2 weeks. This is however still well below the first preference vote share they achieved at the last general election, and even further behind the highs that the party saw in mid election polls. The other concern for the party is that when we prompt for vote using candidate lists in each constituency, their vote share actually falls back again to 19%, suggesting that their support remains somewhat flaky.
Our transfer analysis also shows that Sinn Féin is still not very transfer friendly. It only secures 13% of the second preference votes when candidate lists are shown to voters. Only a third of people that give Sinn Féin a first preference go on to also give the party a second preference. They also get very low transfers from Fine Gael or Fianna Fáil first preferences. While they do somewhat better among Social Democrats and Aontú, there are of course far fewer votes here to be shared around.
Of the big three, Fine Gael is the party in decline, but perhaps not as steeply as has been suggested elsewhere. RED C polls never suggested the party was significantly ahead of the others in the early days of the campaign, so they had less space to fall. In our poll, we do see their vote share decline, but only by 2% to leave them securing 20% of the first preference vote. This is well within the margin of error of the other two parties, and I would imagine that will be a relief to the party in the final days of campaigning.
When we look at vote share by candidate lists in each constituency, they also pull back some of that loss, leaving them securing 21% of the first preference vote. So, they are certainly still in contention to secure a good seat share, albeit with something of a negative trend going into the final days.
The high turnover of incumbents also potentially damages their possible seat gains, as they do not appear to be as transfer friendly as Fianna Fáil. Overall, they secure 17% of the second preference votes, which is better than Sinn Féin, but not as strong as Fianna Fáil. Similar to Sinn Fein, they also only secure conversion of a third of their own first preference votes to a second preference vote,and currently transfer quite heavily to Fianna Fáil candidates instead.
For the other parties, the landscape in the final days remains very stable vs previous polls. Independent candidates continue to secure a very high 14% share of the first preference vote, while Independent Ireland secure another 4%. Independent candidates also perform slightly better when candidate lists are provided in each constituency.
Social Democrats also look like they will perform strongly, securing 6% of the vote, although this does fall back slightly to 5% when candidate lists are shown suggesting they may not have the candidates for all those that wanted to vote for the party. This is also the case for the Green Party and Aontú, both of whom fall back from 4% to 3% when candidate lists are shown. Labour on the other hand secures 4% in both the party and candidate lists, suggesting their vote share is possibly more secure than others.
We know from recent elections that many voters are inclined now to only fully make their final decision in the final couple of days, so things could still change over the course of the final days. But as it stands, the picture remains that all three of the larger parties are still in the hunt for the largest seat share, with perhaps Fianna Fáil best placed of the three.
Download the report below
Business Post RED C Opinion Poll Report – 27th November 2024
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