When party support barely moves in an opinion poll, it is easy to conclude that little has changed politically and the landscape is stable.  For government parties that have seen support declining over recent months, this might feel like they have turned the corner.  Looking beyond the vote intention figures however suggests that is not the case. 

First preference voting intention is remarkably stable this month, with Sinn Féin remaining on 21%, Fine Gael on 18%, Fianna Fáil on 14%, and only marginal movements elsewhere.   

But when we focus instead on the wider trends and, in particular, voter issue polling, it paints a picture of an electorate that remains very frustrated with many of the issues that matter most to them. 

Perhaps the better way to describe today’s poll is not one of political stability, but one of political frustration. The decline in Government support may have slowed, but there is little evidence that voters are becoming any happier. 

Many voters feel disconnected from a government presiding over record tax surpluses, while they themselves continue to struggle with the cost of everyday life.   

This frustration was manifested in the angry fuel protests that happened earlier in the year.  The public mood that fuelled those protests appears far from resolved, with public sector pay now threatening to become the next flashpoint, as the public service unions unilaterally threaten strike action over public sector pay.      

Rather than suggesting today’s poll stability is a possible floor for the government, the question could instead be why that frustration isn’t translating into larger movements in party support. 

Looking beyond the headline voting figures, the answer appears to be that while many voters are increasingly dissatisfied with the direction of the country, they are not yet convinced that changing their vote will necessarily improve their own circumstances.  

The clearest evidence of this frustration comes from housing.  Despite more encouraging numbers out this week on housing competition, the public simply don’t feel like there has been any meaningful impact.  Just 18% of voters believe Ireland is making good progress in delivering more housing, while almost two-thirds (62%) believe the country is failing to make sufficient progress. 

That is an extraordinarily negative assessment, particularly given the political attention housing has received over recent years. Housing has become much more than simply a policy issue. It has become a benchmark by which many voters judge whether government is delivering at all. 

Increasingly, housing has become the issue by which voters judge the competence of government itself.  If progress isn’t being made on housing, then many conclude progress probably isn’t being made elsewhere either. 

That broader sense of discontent can be seen throughout today’s issue polling. 

More than half of voters say they would favour increasing taxes on capital if it meant reducing taxes on income. Whether or not that is the right economic policy is almost secondary. People increasingly feel they work hard, pay significant levels of tax, yet don’t feel noticeably better off. 

Similarly, 53% believe public servants’ wages should automatically keep pace with inflation.  Again, the important point is less the policy itself than what sits behind it.  People want to feel fairly treated, matching inflation feels fair, and they express opinions on this basis. 

Finally, fully two-thirds of voters say they would support further public protests if energy costs continue to rise, despite the mass disruption this caused earlier in the year.  This no longer feels like a debate solely about petrol or home heating.  Rather, it reflects a much wider belief that everyday living costs remain too high and that government should be doing more to ease the pressure. 

What today’s poll perhaps highlights most is that voters are increasingly judging politics not by how the country is performing, but by how they themselves are feeling financially.  

Ireland’s State finances have arguably never been stronger, yet only 18% believe sufficient progress is being made on housing, two thirds would support further protests over energy costs, and majorities want action on taxation and protecting living standards. In many respects, voters are asking a very simple question, if the State has never had more money, why doesn’t it feel like life is getting easier? 

Ultimately, voters judge governments far less by GDP growth, tax receipts or budget surpluses than they do by their own lived experience. 

So if voters remain this dissatisfied, why has party support stabilised?  

The first point is that stability this month should not be confused with recovery. Since the General Election, the two Government parties have already suffered significant losses, Fianna Fail has seen support drop from 22% to 14%, and Fine Gael from 21% to 18%.  So, many past government voters are suggesting the government is not making enough progress on the issues that matter most. 

At the same time, we have also seen some gains for Sinn Féin, the Social Democrats and Aontú.  These gains, however, have yet to produce a clear alternative Government in the minds of many voters, as there appears to be uncertainty over whether any of the opposition parties would necessarily perform much better. 

Today’s poll therefore offers little real comfort for Government.  While the decline in support may have slowed, there is little evidence that voters are becoming any more satisfied with the direction of the country. 

The Government has already paid a significant political price since the General Election. The challenge now is not simply to stop that decline, but to begin winning those voters back. 

That will require more than pointing to healthy public finances, record tax receipts or strong economic growth. It will require convincing voters that they are personally sharing in that success. 

Today’s polling suggests many are still waiting to be convinced. 

Read the full report here