Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael’s electoral ceiling appears to be fixed at below 43% as young voters and particularly those affected by the housing crisis, are disillusioned and looking for an alternative.
Today’s RED C/Business Post poll, shows government party support reaching a combined 37%(-2%) of first preferences, comfortably ahead of any realistic coalition alternative. In the years leading up to the formation of the 2020 grand coalition however, combined support for Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael averaged 58% in 2018, and 55% in 2019. A gap that now seems insurmountable, while both parties share the cabinet.
Evidently, this plateau is not temporary. As Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have not achieved a combined support greater than 43% in a RED C/Business Post poll since 2021 or a general election since 2016.
While both government parties are sure to have been satisfied with the November election results, the first six months of government have not been so positive, with support falling back three points. In the early stages of this Government, housing has been the most prominent issue of focus – speaking rights notwithstanding. Accusations of misleading the electorate regarding 2024 completed units, The Central Bank’s projection of missed targets, the controversial housing tsar proposal, and the contested RPZ legislation, have been glaring.
While a combined support of around 40% is likely enough for the government to form a future majority with some independent support, the limited growth potential is indicative of a deeper shift in Irish politics —a political divide based on the haves, and have nots, specifically as it relates to housing.
Breaking down the current 1st-party preference by homeownership reveals a very real political schism in Ireland. 43% of homeowners would vote for either Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael in the next election, compared to just 25% of those who do not own their own home. Put another way, 3 in 4 renters are unhappy enough with the status quo to desire a change in government.
Observing individual parties, renters are twice as likely to vote for Sinn Féin as homeowners (31% vs. 16%,). In comparison, Fianna Fáil (13% vs. 22%) and Fine Gael (12% vs. 21%) show significantly lower levels of support among renters.
Additionally, renters are significantly more likely to be undecided about who to vote for — a reflection not of apathy, but potential disillusionment. When probed further in our polling, 72% of undecided renters remain unconvinced by any party, with just 1% expressing soft support for the two main government parties.
The ceiling of support for the combined government appears to be underpinned by the strategies employed by the government, both during the election campaign and during its time in office. Prioritising issues linked to the middle class, professionals, homeowners, and landlords, may alienate non-property holding voters.
Nothing is new here; just as Sinn Féin prioritises working-class areas, centre-left-leaning parties are more likely to engage with college-educated urbanites, while fringe parties look to attract the perpetually disaffected and outraged.
Ireland has a clear and steady linear relationship between age and government support, extending beyond those under 34, who tend to be somewhat more idealistic and anti-establishment. This is heightened by those enduring the housing crisis, with approximately four in ten 18-34 year olds living in their family home, and a similar proportion of 35-54 year olds not on the property ladder.
Views on the upcoming Rent Pressure Zone legislation illustrates how disillusioned the electorate is, with only 1 in 5 (22%) seeing it as an effective way of raising investment in housing. In comparison, more are doubtful (36%) or unsure (42%).
This trend in support may serve as a warning shot that the government may be facing a demographic time bomb in the next election cycle, should they not replenish their ageing base, with younger voters and groups locked out of housing.
If housing is left unresolved or sufficient progress is not made, it remains to be seen whether Sinn Féin can achieve the support needed to lead a majority, and whether they can unite Ireland’s fragmented left. Of course, we may also see a sufficient rise in the support of another left-leaning party or indeed left alliance, that could play a key role in the formation of the next government.
In the middle of the last election cycle, Sinn Féin came close to 40%, hovering around the mid-30s for months in 2022, only to struggle, regress, and ultimately fail to exploit the level of public outrage and disillusionment.
Previous research conducted by RED C found that Sinn Féin’s collapse was multifaceted and brought about by its natural expansion into a wider tent as it positioned itself for government. Floating millennials and Gen Z voters looked towards the party for housing, but some ultimately voted for other left-leaning parties. Meanwhile, the traditionally nationalist side of the party, founded in socialism, was introduced to traditional right-wing nationalism when immigration became a more prominent political issue.
The reality is that if the current government ultimately fails in housing, there is potential for future governments to be more fragmented and unstable.
Voter volatility will likely continue to increase, as it already has, and perhaps the page will turn on the era of the two grand parties.
Business Post RED C Opinion Poll Report – June 2025
