Having analysed political polling trends in Ireland for over 20 years, it is difficult to ignore the recurring phenomenon of Sinn Féin’s rising popularity between elections, that tends to fade as the actual election approaches.

In today’s poll, the party secures 24% share of the vote, making it the most supported party in the state once again.  First preference share for the party has risen by +2% in the last month, but more importantly it is up +5% since the last General Election back in November 2024.

At face value, these gains would surely be read as a sign that the party is on the up, and making real gains among the electorate, to put it in a strong position come the next election?  But before concluding that based on the recent data alone, we need to cast a critical eye on what has happened in past electoral cycles.

If we look back at the polling after the previous election held in March 2020, a very similar trend occurred.  In that election, the party secured 25% share of the vote, and then over the six months that followed, that support rose to 30%, and this trend continued onwards to see the party secure 35% support one year after the election.

However, as the public’s minds began to focus, support for the party started to trend downward during the final year before the election.  Ultimately ending up in a place where, while not that far behind Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, they were unable to form a government.

These current gains therefore raise an important question: is the surge in support for Sinn Féin post-election, truly indicative of the party’s realistic electoral ambitions, or does it merely reflect anti-government rhetoric from the public between elections?

Historically, Sinn Féin has demonstrated a good ability to channel public dissatisfaction on many issues. Their critiques of the sitting government on the housing crisis, healthcare inefficiencies, or economic disparities, often strike a chord with voters frustrated by the government’s perceived inability to address key issues.

Signs of support underpinned by anti-government sentiment; can be seen in the underlying data we collect on topical issues throughout the year.  In these questions, when we ask about support or opposition to government decisions, invariably those who oppose the decision the government makes, tend to be much more supportive of Sinn Féin.

For example, of those that support the government’s plan to delay implementing the new minimum living wage and mandatory sick pay entitlements, just 15% say they would vote for Sinn Féin.  Whereas 25% of those who oppose the government’s plan would vote for the party.

Likewise, those opposing the moves to undo the UN’s veto on deploying the Irish Defence Forces abroad, are far more likely to lend their support to Sinn Féin, than those who support the moves.

On the other hand, when we ask the public about their attitudes toward social issues, not directly related to the governments decisions,  those saying they would vote for Sinn Féin, differ very little from government party voters.  For example, the level of support for increased funding for public services over tax cuts, across voters of the three main parties is very similar.

The cyclical nature of the party’s support, and the high correlation with anti-government positions,  does suggest that at least some voters use Sinn Féin support in polls, as a symbolic protest against the establishment during the interim periods between elections

Unfortunately, prospective voters are not loyal voters, and Sinn Féin had difficulty actually convincing these new voters to actually turn up on the day, which was no certainty given the very poor turnout for Sinn Féin at the local and European elections.

While in pole position for most of the electoral cycle, Sinn Féin ultimately became a leaky bucket, haemorrhaging nationalistic voters to the right wing and INDs, losing college educated millennials to Soc Dems and Labour, and those who were unconvinced of any real change.

When we study this transient support in greater detail, it is driven by a cohort of voters who are happy to take on an anti-government stance mid-term, but lose their nerve when the reality sinks in of having to vote for a party who will manage the economy

In other words, those with jobs, those with dependent children, and those in the squeezed middle who tend to be aged 35 to 54.  The old adage of “it’s the economy stupid” still applies, which is particularly relevant as we are looking at an uncertain time ahead economically

Whether Sinn Féin can transform its rhetoric into tangible governance remains to be seen.  To do so, it will have to persuade those with something to lose, that it can provide an alternative government that looks after those who perhaps “get up early in the morning” to work”?

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Business Post RED C Opinion Poll Report – Apr 2025