If the Government was hoping that Budget 2027 would help turn around its fortunes with voters, today’s RED C Business Post poll suggests it may have done quite the opposite.

Instead, there are some worrying signs of growing voter discontent, reflecting the same frustrations we are seeing elsewhere in Europe, as many people feel they are being left behind despite Ireland’s economic prosperity.

The most striking findings in today’s poll are seen in the public’s reaction to the Budget.

An overwhelming 71% believe the measures will do very little to offset cost of living increases, with just 13% believing they will go a long way towards doing so. This is despite what might historically have been considered a relatively generous Budget in terms of overall expenditure.

At the same time, just 14% believe Budget 2027 delivered on the Government’s commitment to prioritise workers, while 61% believe it did not.

That is a particularly negative assessment of a budget, that should have been an opportunity for the Government to demonstrate that it was listening to voters and responding to their concerns.

Following the budget, Fine Gael support drops by three points to just 15%, leaving it level in the doldrums with Fianna Fáil, who gain one point but remains well below their General Election ’24 performance. Combined support for the two main Government parties therefore now stands at just 30%, a new record low in RED C polling, falling below the previous low of 32% first recorded in April this year.  After appearing to stabilise at that level over recent months, today’s poll suggests that the decline may not yet be over.

That is a remarkable position for two parties that have dominated Irish politics for generations and suggests that the Government’s challenge is becoming harder, not easier.

At the same time, Sinn Féin gains one point to 22%, while Independent Ireland sees the biggest gain, up three points to 8%. Aontú also gains a point to 8%, alongside People Before Profit which sees support increase to 4%.

These movements in support suggest something of a protest vote, but not in any scale to the main opposition, Sinn Féin with gains instead for several parties that have been particularly vocal in highlighting the financial pressures facing ordinary households.

It also reflects something we have been seeing consistently in our polling throughout this year.  While Ireland’s economic performance and public finances remain relatively strong, many voters simply don’t feel that they are benefiting personally from that success.

Alongside the damning response to the budget, the majority of voters (57%) also say they would support further industrial action by public sector unions if a satisfactory pay agreement is not reached, compared with just 21% who would oppose it.

Pulled together, these findings appear to show a very real disconnect between the State’s financial position and the everyday experience of households, that appears to be becoming one of the defining political issues facing the Government.

Indeed, Aontú and Independent Ireland’s combined 16% is also nod to the growing appeal of right-leaning economic populist messaging, which has found fertile ground in Europe.

The violent protests seen in France and Italy over recent days have also, after all, been driven, at least in part, by growing frustration with the cost of living, wages and the sense that governments are failing to respond to the concerns of ordinary people.

Right now, Ireland is in a very different position with anger not having bubbled over to violence.  However, there are very real similarities in the underlying frustration.  The fuel protests earlier this year were an example of this, and were only abated because the government had the ability and funds to quickly react to appease the masses.

Despite this, today’s polling suggests that dissatisfaction with the Government’s response to household financial pressures remains widespread.  Voters who feel that mainstream parties are failing to respond to their concerns may become increasingly willing to consider alternatives that promise more direct action again.

For the establishment, that presents a considerable challenge.  As has been seen elsewhere in Europe, there is a real need to quell the frustration of those who do not feel they are benefiting from the country’s economic prosperity.

The challenge for the government now is not simply to convince voters that Ireland is performing well economically, which most people would see as being the case, but to demonstrate that ordinary households are really sharing in that success.

But how can that be achieved, when what would historically be considered a “giveaway” budget in terms of total spend, hardly makes an impact?

Much of what is driving inflation and rising fuel costs is outside the direct control of the Irish Government. However, voters have also seen how governments can respond in crisis mode, for example supporting businesses and protecting employment during the Covid-19 pandemic.  This level of intervention has perhaps spoiled the electorate and driven a level of expectation that is beyond reality.

However, for many voters, the current cost-of-living pressures may feel just as significant to their own lives. Having seen what Government can achieve when faced with a national crisis (e.g. COVID, Brexit), some voter expectations of what can be done now are understandably high.

The challenge for the Irish government, alongside its European counterparts, is to find a solution to better support voters, who are rebelling against the current status quo.

Read the full report here