While the first preference vote intention across parties is relatively stable in the latest RED C poll, the underlying results on which party is best placed to deal with different issue areas, suggest much could change if one or other issue becomes the focus of the campaign.

The Economy/Job creation

Let’s start with the economy.  Often the factor shown to be the most important to voters as they go to the polls, a fact underlined by evidence from exit poll findings from the recent US election.  In Ireland, while just 22% of the electorate say they will give Fine Gael their first preference vote, a significantly higher number (27%) think the party is best equipped to deal with the economy.  This puts them significantly ahead of their main rivals on such an important issue, with only 19% saying Fianna Fáil are best placed to manage the economy, and only 15% backing Sinn Féin on this issue.

Housing

Since the last election, housing has regularly been ranked as one of the most important issues for voters, only overtaken by the cost of living in recent years.  Despite the decline in support for Sinn Féin this year, they remain the party best nominated by voters to manage housing over the next five years.  At the same time, both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil are seen by voters to be relatively weak on this issue.  If the campaign focus moves back heavily to housing, Sinn Féin could win back some support, particularly as they enjoy a significant lead on this issue among undecided voters.  However, it should be noted that almost 1 in 4 (23%) don’t think any party is well placed to manage this issue.

Health

A consistently top ranked issues for voters at successive elections, health will remain important this time around.  However, no party is really seen to be best placed to deal with it. In fact, more people think that “no party” is well placed to manage health, than think any other party is.  Of the larger parties, Fine Gael and Sinn Féin elicit the same level of support with 18% saying they are best placed to manage the health service. But the lack of conviction around this presents health as an opportunity to win over voters with fresh plans as the campaign unfolds.

Crime, Law and Order

Like health, there is no clear winner for voters on crime, but Fine Gael does lead the other two parties, driven by greater support among older voters.  Crime doesn’t appear to be a differentiator at present on vote intention, as a similar proportion voting for each party believe the party they are supporting is best placed to deal with crime.  Once again, quite high numbers don’t see any party as being well placed to deal with the issues.

Immigration

Immigration has already had a significant impact on how voters have shifted support between parties during this electoral term and remains an important issue for many.  At present no party is really seen to have a significant edge on being able to deal with immigration. While Independent candidates and Aontu do better on this than other issues, the endorsement is in only in line or lower than their vote share nationally. Fine Gael is again slightly ahead of the other two main parties, but this issue area is one where a large proportion of voters don’t feel any party is well placed to deal with the issue.

Education

An issue area which again sees Fine Gael lead voter endorsements, but also one that Fianna Fáil does relatively better on than most others.   Education is however something of a weakness for Sinn Fein, who only secure 14% endorsement overall, mainly due to the fact that only 67% of their own voters support the party as being the best to manage education in the next five years.

Environment

No surprise that the Green Party dominates here, getting 1 in 4 voters to endorse them as being the best to manage this issue, significantly ahead of their own vote share.  The disconnect however between this issue and party support, suggests that the environment is unlikely to be a big vote getting issue in the general election

Infrastructure

Finally, the issue of infrastructure, flagged as a potential new government department, post the election.  Here Fine Gael once again leads endorsements, which is perhaps surprising given the recent focus on things like the National Children’s Hospital and bike shed overruns.  However, their endorsement is only at a similar level to their vote share, while Fianna Fáil also does quite well on this issue.  But no party is seen to significantly differentiate on this issue.

So overall, the voters’ views on the parties best placed to deal with issues, appear to back Fine Gael more than any other party.  They are significantly ahead on the economy, job creation, and crime, while retaining leads in immigration and infrastructure putting them in a strong position at present.  Sinn Féin needs to get the campaign to focus on housing and perhaps health, while underlining how it will ensure the economy remains stable.  While Fianna Fáil needs to close the gap on the economy, jobs and crime, while also eating into Sinn Féin strengths on housing.

Finally, what does all this mean for the very high levels of Independent voters in Ireland?  Currently securing 15% of the vote, and possibly accounting for 18% if you were to include votes for Independent Ireland.  Yet not seen to be best placed to deal with any of the key issues voters care about.

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Business Post RED C Opinion Poll Report – November W1 2024