A General Election is now very much in sight, but will it be in 2024 or 2025?
As Fine Gael gathered for a party “Think In” before the Dáil returns to sit after the summer recess, Simon Harris reiterated his commitment, that the current government would sit a full term, which implies a February or March 2025 election. Although he did not fully commit to a spring election.
If the government does last until 2025, one thing is clear. We will have a very long election campaign, given that the parties are pretty much already in campaign mode. With this in mind, how do each of the parties stand right now, and what might change in the long run-up to the election?
Fine Gael are the party riding high right now, with momentum from Simon Harris taking charge and the party doing perhaps better than expected at the local elections. The poll numbers reflect this as they secure 23% of the first preference vote, up 2% since June and the highest for the party in almost 2 years. Given this upward momentum, it is no surprise that many in the party are calling for a Nov 2024 election date.
So why does Simon Harris seem to be pushing for a full term? Perhaps his strategists believe that the positive budget impacts, declining interest rates and more house completions will allow this momentum to hold. On a more personal level, the Taoiseach may also feel that the longer term will give him longer time to establish himself as the leader of both the country and his party. However, by going its full term, there is always the danger than some crisis may emerge over the winter that could derail the party.
Sinn Féin on the other hand continues to be in decline, despite publishing their recent policy document on how they would deal with the housing crisis if they were elected, just under two weeks ago. In this poll they secure just 18% of the first preference vote, down 2% since June, and continuing a decline seen over the past year and particularly since their poor showing in the local elections.
In RED C data conducted for the Electoral Commission post the local elections, subsequently analysed by Dr Rory Costello, Associate Director in the Dept. of Politics at University of Limerick , he clearly shows that the party has lost support mainly from more right leaning anti-establishment voters, and now has voters more aligned to their policies. That does however suggest it will be potentially much more difficult to get them back. It’s also not clear how much further support could fall.
Right now, their support is 6% lower than they achieved at the last general election, and all the extra candidates in place to run in that election, may now be a hinderance to gaining seats rather than a benefit if support were much higher. The party will continue to make the upcoming general election about housing. Our analysis of those “definite” to vote at the next general election sees Sinn Fein support fall even further to just 16%, so it is vital they persuade their supporters to turn up on election day, which they failed to do at the local elections.
Fianna Fáil also had a relatively good local election. Securing more seats than any pollsters or political commentators expected. Much analysis of data since then has shown that they very much benefited from strong campaigning and a “candidate” rather than “party” boost at the local elections, which is not as apparent in general elections.
Despite this they are also seen to be performing more strongly in general election polls than in the past, just not at the levels they achieved in the locals. In today’s poll they have fallen back slightly to 18% of the vote, down 1%. Given the party has a history of overperforming vs. polls, and the fact that the candidate impact on the ground can have for the party, it is possible that their support could be as high as perhaps 21%, at the top end of margin for error. But right now, they don’t appear to have the same momentum as Fine Gael.
Smaller parties are more difficult to evaluate this far out, but some are worth mentioning. Independent candidates and Independent Ireland together take almost 1 in 5 voters first preference vote. At this level, they could prove to be a powerful force when parties are looking to form the next government, provided they can convert this support into seats in the election
The Social Democrats also appear to be performing well right now, with 6% support in this poll, keeping them as the fourth most supported party in the state currently. They do sometimes struggle to make this tell in an election on the ground, for example securing less local election seats than Labour despite polling higher in the run up to the election. Despite this they will be optimistic for a good election, and if they were to perform at this level they could well end up as king makers in any coalition deal.
So, we know where people stand right now, but recent history has shown us that the Irish electorate is very volatile, and things can change quite rapidly as a campaign comes into play. For Fine Gael, the party with momentum, its important they continue to build on that and avoid any major gaffs. For Sinn Féin, stopping the slide is vital so they are not at too low a base to get back support during any campaign. For Fianna Fáil, capitalising on this strong base on the ground must be on the agenda.
There is still plenty to play for, but right now a return of the current coalition, or a similar one with both Fine Gael and Fianna Fail at its heart, looks the most likely option.
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Business Post RED C Opinion Poll Report – Sep 2024
