This poll is the first taken since we had confirmation from the coalition leaders that the general election will be held in 2024.

The most likely date for voting as I write being Friday November 29th.  Given most everyone now knows this, we are pretty much in campaign mode already, even though officially it won’t be kicked off for about another 2 weeks, the campaign will effectively run for four to five weeks.

We also know that campaigns matter and have had a significant impact on party fortunes in recent elections.  For example, at the last general election in 2020, Sinn Féin support rose steadily throughout the campaign to leave the party almost 10% ahead of where they stood prior to the campaign.

Finally, we know that voters are more volatile than ever, being much more likely than in the past to switch support between parties or to change their support in referendum campaigns.

So, with a long campaign and a more volatile voter, what movements in party support might we expect to see over the next five weeks?

Fianna Fáil appears to be the first to gain as people focus on the reality of an actual election.  A bounce in support of +3% when compared to just before the budget suggests that Jack Chambers’ role as Minister for Finance has had an impact.  Current support for the party is the highest recorded in RED C polling since the last general election, and sets Fianna Fáil up well to potentially gain during the campaign.

Before this poll, the noise had all been around Fine Gael, with both RED C and other polls suggesting they had some momentum going into the budget.  The party still appearing to benefit from the change in leadership to Simon Harris.  But more high-profile members of the party declaring they are not standing at the election may have stalled this.  Certainly, as people start to think of the actual candidate they will vote for, rather than just the party, which tends to happen the closer we get to an election.  The more focus there will be on the fact that half of those that were elected for Fine Gael in 2020 are not standing in 2024.   In today’s poll, they slip back by one percent and in the core data (before undecided are removed and likelihood to vote weights are put in place) they are effectively neck and neck with their coalition partners.

For both the main coalition parties however, the opportunity to increase their vote further during the campaign appears to be relatively limited, while the danger of defection is still very much alive. Only just over half of each of the party’s current supporters say they will definitely vote for them, with the rest falling into the “most likely” category.  If most likely voters do vote for each party, Fine Gael could gain a couple of percent share and Fianna Fail might gain one percent.  There is a further 16% for each party, who suggest they could possibly vote for the party, but these will be much harder to persuade.

For Sinn Féin, the woes continue, with support down a further 1% in this poll, leaving them securing just 17% of the first preference vote, and within that just nine percent suggesting they will definitely vote for the party.  They do have a further 11%, on top of that, who say they are most likely to vote for them, but this again can’t be guaranteed.  Particularly as elsewhere in the poll we find that 30% of those that previously said they would vote for the party, now think they are not fit for government.  While when we look at those who state they will definitely go and vote the parties support also drops down to just 15%.

Independent candidates secure 20% of the vote in the poll, when Independent Ireland is added to the independent candidates on their own.  Currently however, just 7% say they will definitely vote for independent candidates, while up to 24% suggest they either definitely or most likely will vote for them.  As a result, this vote is clearly very volatile and may change dramatically during the campaign.

Finally, of real interest is the Labour and Social Democrats potential support .  The Social Democrats stand at 5% first preferences, while Labour currently stands at 4%.  However, just 2% say they will definitely support one or the other.  Alongside this, when “most likely” voters for each party are added, the Social Democrats see an available likely voter target of 11%, while Labour has an available likely voter target of 9%.  Labour also does better among those definite to vote, bringing its first preference share up to 5%.  If either party was to get some momentum in the campaign , they could therefore do much better than their current first preference support suggests.  The Green Party has a similar picture, but to a lesser degree, with 2% definite voters, and the possibility of up to 8%.

This is particularly relevant, as many of those who previously said they would vote for Sinn Féin, and have since decided they no longer wish to do so, have told us in the past that the main reason for voting Sinn Féin was to vote for anyone but the incumbent coalition parties.
The support of these voters is still very much up for grabs, and as the campaign progresses it would seem reasonable that one of the other smaller parties or independent candidates could possibly benefit.

Download the full report below

Business Post RED C Opinion Poll Report – Oct 2024