At the time of the coalition formation discussions, following the 2020 general election, many suggested that Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael should avoid forming a “grand coalition” due to the risk that support for one party might diminish over the government’s term, as voters rallied behind the stronger party in order to prevent Sinn Féin from entering government

During the initial stages of that government, it certainly looked like this prophesy could come true. Fianna Fáil support fell dramatically immediately after the 2020 general election, to the lowest levels seen for the party since the economic crash in 2010, as Fine Gael dominated the media and the public’s attention during the initial phase of that term leading the care-taker government dealing with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Despite this initial fall in support, the core Fianna Fáil vote was retained. Michéal Martin was also seen by voters to perform well during his time as Taoiseach, meaning that that the party bounced back and, in the end, secured a higher share of the vote than Fine Gael in the general election last year.

Roll forward to the 2024 general election, and it appears the roles could have been reversed.  With Fine Gael support falling as we start into the new government term, and the party potentially being in more danger of being squeezed as the junior government partner.

This could be further compounded by the fact that a number of big name and well-known Fine Gael TDs retired before that election.  Many suggested this could cause the party significant issues at the election, due to the lack of candidate recognition in many constituencies.  However, while this may have led to them somewhat underperforming in the election vs. their targets, the reality is that they still retained a relatively strong share of the vote at the same levels they achieved in 2020.

However, the lack of some of those well recognised names in cabinet, and the fact that Fine Gael start off this term as very much the junior partner in government, certainly means the spotlight has not been on the party.

Instead, over the last month media coverage has very much favoured the Taoiseach Michéal Martin and his visit to the Oval Office, which was hailed as a successful trip under the circumstances by most of the media. In contrast, the coverage for Simon Harris and his party has been relatively weak.

It is perhaps therefore not a surprise to see Fianna Fáil make gains in today’s poll, while Fine Gael loses share. A +2% increase in support for Fianna Fáil, sees the party secure 22% of the first preference vote, the same they achieved at the election itself, having fallen back last month.

At the same time, Sinn Féin support remains relatively steady, dropping back by just 1% to also secure 22% of the first preference vote. These figures appear to suggest, that in voters’ minds, these are the two main parties in government and in opposition.

In the same period, Fine Gael has lost significant share of support, dropping by -3% in just one month. It means the party secures just 17% of the first preference vote in today’s poll.  This is the lowest level of support seen for the party since RED C began polling for the Business Post way back in 2005.

Such a large drop, and to levels not seen before, will certainly cause significant concern in the party.  Particularly if this proves to be the beginning of a possible enduring squeeze of their support.

Also of concern will be the fact that support for the party among younger voters appears to have dropped significantly. In recent history, Fine Gael has performed quite well among young voters, who gave the party credit for their part in delivering social developments in Ireland such as abortion and same sex marriage. It will be vital for the party to win back that vote in order for them to stay in the field come the next election.

It’s too early to tell if this drop does represent an enduring squeeze on traditional Fine Gael support, but it does suggest those representing the party will need to work hard to regain and retain support while Fianna Fáil lead the government during the first phase of this electoral term.

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Business Post RED C Opinion Poll Report – Mar 2025