On the face of it the poll results for the main parties this month may seem not that exciting with ±2% changes across the three big parties. However, in reality there appears to be something far more seismic going on underneath the top line numbers.

When analysing polling, movements month on month can be interesting, but often tend not to be as change tends to happen slowly over time.  Far more important is the underlying longer term trend in support for parties, and how that helps us to understand changes in voters’ attitudes, intentions and beliefs.

Sinn Fein, who recorded a boost following the budget and into the Áras race, sees support fall back slightly by -1% month on month, leaving them securing 22% of the first preference vote. Longer term analysis suggests that the upward trend in support for the party, remains unsteady, and has faltered again after gains last month.

Conversely, Fianna Fail see a small gain of just +1%, which also on the face of it seems relatively stable vs. last month.  However, I am sure it will be something of a relief for the party, following several months of marginal declines. Certainly, the passing of time appears to have helped remove the debacle of the presidential election, at least from the front of voters’ minds.

Fine Gael also sees a small decline in support, with their share of the first preference vote dropping by -2%, again this could be dismissed as being “within margin of error”.  Further review however shows that this leaves the party securing just 17% of the first preference vote, their lowest vote share recorded in RED C polls since we began tracking over 20 years ago.

So small changes that might be written off as just being “within the margin of error” actually have much greater meaning.

Taking this type of analysis further, we can zoom out and identify longer term trends that are changing the political landscape completely.  One trend along these lines, is the demise of the historically dominant parties in Irish politics, and the opportunities this presents for alternatives to grow.

The combined support of Fianna Fail and Fine Gael in today’s poll is just 35%.  At the last general election, it was 43%.  So, in one year they have seen a decline of -8%, a figure that is significantly greater than a +or-3% margin of error.

At the 2016 general election the two parties secured 50% support, and were regularly achieving 54-55% in the polls between 2016 and 2020.  This represents a further decline of between -7 to -11%, meaning in the past 10 years they have lost between -15% and -19% of the first preference vote.

Go even further back to 2007 and at that stage the two parties were securing support levels between them of 69%.  So, in the past 20 years between them they have lost somewhere between -31% and -35% of the electorate.

“But”, I hear you say, “the big two government parties always lose support between elections, but historically they win this back at elections”.  That is partly true, but the rebound is rarely quite as large as the loss. As a result gradually over time the vote share of the big two is being degraded one election after another.

With support now declining to be just a third of the electorate, we are getting to the stage where it opens up real opportunities for alternatives to stake their claim and gain a real share that gives them a voice in the next election.

Evidence of this was seen last month where we saw strong gains for the Social Democrats, following a very successful presidential Election.  This month the party comes close to retaining the gains made.

At the same time, we also see Aontu, perhaps the polar opposite from policy point of view to the Social Democrats, make strong gains in support.  The party secures 6% of the first preference vote, a gain of 2% that could again be said to be within margin of error.  However, it represents a 50% gain for the party and means they secure their highest vote share ever in RED C historical polling.

While other voters, unsure of which party to support, flock back to Independent candidates, who also see a +2% gain in support.

The decline of the big two parties of Irish political history is leaving a somewhat confused and fractured political landscape, with voters as yet unsure of how they might vote, or which party best suits them.  Many just know that they have had enough of the past parties perceived as the establishment.

This provides a real opportunity for a party or parties to stake a claim and secure a real gain in support before the next election, by offering a broad church to voters that appeals as a new alternative.

Which, if any parties might receive a ‘Gilmore gale’ type growth in the future remains to be seen, but it certainly looks like the possibility exists.

Read the report here: Business Post RED C Opinion Poll – November 2025