RED C are delighted with the accuracy of our polling at the recent Irish General Election in Nov 2024. The final RED C Business Post poll had the joint best average error across all parties, and the most accurate by far across the three main parties, correctly predicting that Fianna Fáil would have the largest vote share and that they would benefit most from transfers.

The accuracy of our final poll conducted online vs. polls conducted face to face with larger sample sizes, once and for all puts to bed the idea that online polling is somehow inferior. RED C were also the most accurate at predicting the GE 2020 election result, using both a telephone and an online methodology.

Rather than one approach being better than others, the most important factors are the method of controlling the sample, plus weighting and analysing the data. Our data analytics team uses a variety of sampling controls and weighting matrices to ensure an accurate representation of likely voters, including models that accurately control for likely turnout.

The accuracy of our polls once again underlines the high quality of our research, in particular the quality controls for our online panel and the statistical controls and weighting matrices used to ensure a representative sample.

The RED C published polls in the Business Post, clearly gave the insight to the wider population very accurately from the start of the campaign. Our final poll (figure 1 below) had an average error of just 0.8% the lowest error seen across all polls, and ahead of the exit poll.

We also correctly predicted that Fianna Fáil would take the greatest vote share. In fact, our average error across the three main parties was just 0.9%. The most accurate by far across all polls conducted in the closing stages of the campaign.

The largest error for any one party in our final poll was just 1.3%, which is well within the +/-3% margin of error for a poll of this nature.

Our transfer analysis in the final poll also clearly indicated prior to election day that Fianna Fáil would also be the most transfer friendly party, and receive a seat bonus on this basis.

These results back up the quality credentials both of the RED C Live online panel generally, and also of the RED C sampling and quality control team tasked with ensuring we reach a representative sample through that panel.  We employ strict quality procedures and demand that we pay a fair reward to our panellists for their time.  Given that the RED C polls were run on our online omnibus service, this also gives our clients great confidence in the results we deliver for them.

Overall, we are delighted the Election 2024 has provided us with a platform to once again showcase the quality of our fieldwork, and the ability of our team to dig deeper and provide real understanding, using both qualitative and data analytic techniques.