Consumer Mood falls sharply on back of fears over global trade war

Our measure of the Consumer Mood in Ireland fell to -78 (the % of people that think things will get better versus the % that think it will get worse), a decline of 55 points compared with last January. The last time the Mood was this low was at the start of the cost-of-living crisis back in Apr-22.

A large majority of people (77%) believe that US tariffs will have a significant negative impact on the Irish economy, with nearly half (49%) believing this could result in many US companies leaving Ireland. This is clearly weighing heavily on consumer minds and their concerns over the economic outlook.

As a consequence, consumers are considerably less optimistic about the outlook for the jobs market, disposable incomes, the cost of living and their financial wellbeing. Even despite the ECB cutting rates again in April, consumers are more downbeat about the outlook for the cost of borrowing.

The decline in sentiment also points to a contraction in consumer spending (most notably on consumer goods and holidays), but is a bit more measured relative to the decline in the mood – consumers are clearly worried about the economic outlook, but many are holding back only cautiously for now, signalling concern rather than outright alarm.

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