After a particularly eventful month in both geo- and domestic politics, this month’s RED C Business Post poll shows that voters expect the government to do more in response to rising fuel costs, which many see as the last straw.

Our current poll results suggest that opposition messaging that people can’t cope with rising costs is working, at least in the short term. There is notable movement in voter support with declines for the government and gains for the opposition.

So why are these arguments cutting through with the electorate?

Ultimately, it comes from a disconnect between Ireland’s macroeconomic dual economy and the squeezed reality of many household budgets and small businesses. This leads to the perception that the government is detached from the everyday cost-of-living pressures.

Regardless of whether someone supports the approach, the fuel protests and the opposition’s subsequent criticism of the government tap into a broader public mood that extends beyond the haulage and agricultural industries.

RED C has conducted our Consumer Mood Monitor quarterly for the last decade. It measures sentiment across kitchen-table issues such as future fuel spend, home energy costs, and groceries, as well as broader macro issues related to the economic outlook and financial well-being.

Cost-of-living pressures are experienced both immediately and frequently by voters at checkouts, fuel pumps, or on utility bills. They affect the everyday choices people make and overall security. This often shapes how voters perceive the economy and makes it much more salient to everyday voters than inflation or GDP figures.

It leads to voters wanting to understand, “while FDI investment and revenue intake are great on paper, why do I feel poorer? And why can’t we fix anything?”

Approximately 7 in 10 voters anticipate paying higher petrol/diesel costs or home-heating bills in the next 6 months, with the situation in the Middle East clearly driving this deterioration. Confidence around future grocery spending has weakened in tandem.

Anxiety around the cost of living is not new to Ireland; we’ve seen consumer confidence in negative territory amid several globally driven shocks in recent years. However, when stacking current international events on top of the existing domestic situation, we’re seeing some indicators hitting severe lows.

One of the most-watched measures concerns the overall outlook for the Irish Economy, in which voters are asked whether they believe things will get better or worse over the next 6 months. While April’s Consumer Mood Monitor fieldwork coincided with fuel protests that had gripped the nation’s attention, even allowing for this, the results make for sober reading.

Almost 9 in 10 adults believe the Irish economy will worsen over the next 6 months, matching levels not seen since the level 5 COVID restrictions in Oct-20.

Governments can survive unhappy opponents; however, when the base is less likely to believe things will improve, it can make things uncomfortable for the government and, indeed, for backbenchers.

Traditionally, government supporters tend to have more optimistic views of economic direction than those who seek political change. That gap, however, has narrowed sharply, and when its own voter base increasingly feels the pinch and grows less optimistic about the future, it ought to concern government parties.

In October ’24, just ahead of the General Election, government voters were still broadly positive, with more expecting the economy to improve than worsen in the months ahead. By April ’26, this sentiment has reversed dramatically, with only 1 in 10 government supporters expecting things to improve and 8 in 10 expecting things to worsen. This represents a swing of 55%-points in terms of pessimism amongst government supporters.

This swing in public perception of the economic outlook further highlights the dissonance between lived consumer experience and the positive headline economic metrics published in this week’s Spring Economic Forecast.

Similar patterns are evident across several other measures, with sharp spikes in pessimism noted amongst government supporters, across cost-of-living pressures, personal financial well-being, and levels of discretionary disposable income.

Meanwhile, pessimism about housing affordability is the only area that has not changed significantly over the lifetime of the current government, with 4 in 5 voters believing things will continue to worsen in the coming months (4% believe they will improve).

With no immediate or sustainable end in sight in the Strait of Hormuz and the inherent economic risk that entails, the government may face a bumpy road ahead with an increasingly frustrated electorate.

The government has a job to do in communicating that it is listening to the electorate, making a genuine attempt to fix the issues facing it, or, at the very least, getting caught trying. Sustained cost-of-living pressures and perceptions that concerns are being dismissed or minimised are fertile grounds for populist arguments to take hold.

How the government responds to this current crisis, both in tone and actionable relief, may well establish the direction Irish politics takes in the years ahead.

Business Post RED C Opinion Poll Report – April 2026