A successful White House visit may generate positive headlines, but it does not necessarily move voters. For many people, politics is judged first and foremost through the lens of everyday life, and right now, that means the cost of living.

This explains why despite the positive coverage around Micheál Martin’s visit to the White House, Fianna Fáil support slipped back by one point in today’s poll, and why it is important to recognise that voters tend to have a hierarchy of needs when it comes to politics.

Voters tend to assess politics firstly “How am I doing personally?” or “How does this impact me personally” and only then, “How is or how does this impact my family, my community, or the country?”.

How the actions and policies of political parties or government impact me personally is therefore far more important than the country’s standing in the world. As such, the impact of the conflict in the Middle East on fuel prices, which directly hit already stretched household budgets, is likely to have mattered far more to many voters than a successful visit to the White House.

That matters because during the poll fieldwork, government parties were being accused by opposition parties of dragging their heels on any supports to offset the rising fuels costs. This is likely to have had far more impact on the results than anything else, as while supports did eventually materialise this week, they were only towards the end of when polling was taking place.

Further context, is that the RED C’s Consumer Mood Monitor ratings in Ireland have remained depressed for some time.  Our quarterly consumer mood tracking suggested in late January that just 11% of the public believed the economy was due to get better in the next six months, while 6 in 10 felt that it would get worse.    This was well before the conflict in the Middle East had even started.

At the same time, while the high inflation impact on the cost of living seen post-covid and into the start of the invasion of Ukraine did abate somewhat last year, inflation easing is not the same as prices falling. For households already under pressure, the cost base remains stubbornly high, and these voters have had little positive news on the horizon that making ends meet will get easier.

Further rises in grocery price inflation during the latter half of last year also added pressure on household budgets.   While the recent budget offered little in relief to consumers, and so cost-of-living remains a notable concern for voters.

In that kind of environment, governments are judged less on symbolism and more on whether they appear responsive to day-to-day pressure. Ireland is already a bit of an anomaly internationally, where incumbents in most Western countries have suffered defeat stemming from living standards and inflation post-pandemic.

This wider economic difficulty for many over the longer term helps explain why party support is well aligned to voters’ own personal economic situation.  Those who are more optimistic about their ability to make ends meet, and the outlook for their economic future are more likely to support the Grand Coalition, who have been in power during the last 6 years.

At the same time those who are squeezed and who see little optimism for the future are more likely to vote for opposition parties.  There is little evidence over a fairly long period of time for those who are struggling, that the current government parties will make any difference to their economic fortunes, despite the country’s coffers being in a comparatively strong fiscal position.  Alternatively, the opposition parties do regularly promise to make their lives more bearable, and they might just make a difference.

If we focus back in on Fianna Fáil supporters, the data suggests they are not the most optimistic economically.   They tend to be more likely to be just about keeping afloat, rather than living comfortably.  So, the government dragging its feet on energy supports as prices rise, is likely to have even more impact on their voters.

Fianna Fáil voters are also the most likely to back the government’s introduction of energy supports for households and businesses, with 93% supporting this action.

More broadly, this is a reminder that governments rarely get full political credit for competence in areas that feel distant from daily life, when voters remain anxious about what they can afford at home. Diplomatic wins, strong international relationships, and solid macroeconomic performance all matter, but they matter less when households still feel financially squeezed.

For Fianna Fáil in particular, that creates a clear political challenge. Its potential voter base includes many people who are not necessarily in acute financial distress, but who are also far from feeling comfortable. They are certainly voters who are likely to notice rising fuel, grocery, and household costs, and most likely to punish any perceived delay or hesitation in government response.

In that sense, this poll may say less about any single event and more about the political mood of the moment. Until voters feel a meaningful easing in the pressure on everyday living costs, it is likely that affordability concerns will continue to outweigh more positive political or diplomatic developments and continue to shape party support accordingly.

Business Post RED C Opinion Poll Report – March 2026